Ed Note: The futbol today will be smashing. But if you need a football fix, check out our look ahead to Week Two of the College Football Season.
Saturday’s game: Spain vs. France – 2:45 p.m. ET
Spain (-145), France (+450), Draw (+260)
Both teams enter this game with more struggles than anticipated. But it still stands to be a very exciting match.
The Spanish entered Euro 2012 looking to become the first team ever to win three straight major tournaments. But they began with a surprising 1-1 draw against Italy. Along with falling behind 1-0, the decision to start without a striker raised some eyebrows. Things turned around against Ireland in a 4-0 win, but Spain needed a goal in the final minutes to earn a 1-0 win over Croatia and win the group.
France entered the tournament looking to move past a divisive and disastrous World Cup in South Africa. Things started OK with a 1-1 draw against England, although the French probably should have fared better. They followed up with an impressive 2-0 win over Ukraine and were in prime position to win their group and avoid Spain. But a shocking 2-0 loss to already-eliminated Sweden and some reported locker room clashes have things spiraling down for the French. Two games in, they appeared to be in a good position to reach the semifinals. Now, reaching the semis would be a surprise. The loss to Sweden broke a 23-game unbeaten streak.
Given France’s attacking style, Spain could again go without a striker and opt for more possession. Their gameplan of constant possession is about tiring down opponents and striking with a few chances. But the aura of Spanish invincibility is gone. Teams have figured out how to play with Spain, and talented teams could be able to produce chances. Whether or not they can take advantage of those chances is another issue. Italy got one, but probably should have had more. Croatia missed some chances. Nevertheless, goalkeeper Iker Casilla has been great.
As for the French, there is offensive firepower with Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema, but the defense has been an issue. It’s an even bigger issue coming off the Sweden loss. France comes into the tournament with a goal differential of zero. If the team that beat Ukraine shows up, it could be a good game. If not, the French might only get a couple shots on net.
Both teams seemingly would enter the game with confidence. Spain hasn’t lost a competitive match since the group stages of the 2010 World Cup. France has lost just once in its past 24 games. But that one loss undid a lot of positive feelings about the squad.
Spain has never won a competitive match against France, drawing once and losing five. But Spain is in the midst of one of the greatest runs in European history. I expect France to play well, but Spain will live to fight for another championship.
Prediction: Spain 1-0 France
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