Sunday’s game: Italy vs. England – 2:45 p.m.
Italy (+180), England (+170), Draw (+210)
Neither Italy nor England are as talented as they’ve been in the past, but that doesn’t make the final quarterfinal game any less intriguing. Just take a look at those lines. This is basically a toss-up (with the possibility of a draw).
The winner of this one will earn the task of facing seemingly-invincible Germany, but it’s a challenge both teams would love to have.
Italy entered the tournament amid all sorts off drama regarding a match-fixing scandal back home. Despite a history of slow starts, Italy earned a shocking 1-1 draw against Spain in the opener, holding its own for most of the match. With spirits high, the Italians took a 1-0 lead against Croatia, but an ugly second half resulted in another 1-1 draw and their destiny was out of their hands. They took care of Ireland 2-0 and nearly won the group until a late Spain goal against Croatia gave the group’s top spot to La Roja. Other than a disappointing second half against Croatia, the Azzurri have been better than expected by making solid adjustments.
England entered this tournament without high expectations for the first time in a while. Without the pressure, they earned a 1-1 draw against France in the opener, although they were outplayed. In their second match, the Three Lions rallied for a 3-2 comeback win over Sweden. Wayne Rooney returned from suspension for the third match and scored the lone goal in a 1-0 win over co-host Ukraine. The win, coupled with a France loss, gave England a surprise finish atop the group. Expectations were low, but now hopes are high.
For years, Italy was known for its stout defense-first style of play. But since the disastrous performance in the 2010 World Cup, the Italians have moved to a possession-based attack, similar to that of Spain. The results have been fantastic for the Azzurri.
England’s short time under new manager Roy Hodgson was supposed to be about a stout defense and few chances on offense. But the English have found enough chances on offense and their play has many dreaming of bigger things than a quarterfinal appearance — which they would have been happy with prior to the tournament.
This matchup is going to be about two teams that focus on defense, even if their back lines aren’t fantastic. England has never beaten Italy in a competitive international match, but this isn’t the same Italy, and it isn’t the same England — for better or for worse. England has no injury problems, but Italy will be without Georgio Chiellini, its best center-back.
The midfield is going to be crowded. There will be some star-studded individual matchups, including Wayne Rooney against Daniele De Rossi and Manchester City teammates Joleon Lescott and Mario Balotelli. As frustrating as Balotelli can be at times, he is an elite talent and has found his form. Lescott may have an edge, compared to most defenders, considering their club backgrounds.
There won’t be many goals in this one. But I see Italy scoring a timely goal, possibly from Balotelli in extra time or in penalty kicks.
Prediction: Italy 1-0 England
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