Friday’s game: Germany vs. Greece – 2:45 p.m. ET
Germany (-350), Greece (+1000), Draw (+1000)
In the second quarterfinal, a tournament favorite takes on the biggest surprise of the final eight.
The Germans cruised through the group stage with three wins in three games in the Group of Death. In the opener, they needed a late goal to earn a 1-0 win over Portugal. In retrospect, Portugal has proven to be a quality team in the tournament, as evidenced by their advancement to the semis. In the second match, Germany took down rival Netherlands 2-1 and all but assured that the defending World Cup runners-up wouldn’t move past the group stage. In the final match, an inspired Denmark team looking to sneak into the knockout stage played a solid game, but a goal in the 80th minute gave Germany a perfect record in the group stage.
While all three games have been won by one goal difference, it did come in the Group of Death. Mario Gomez is tied for tournament lead with three goals, and the team chemistry has been great. With seven starters being from Bayern Munich, it’s not a surprise. Anything short of reaching the final, and perhaps winning it, will be considered a disappointment.
Greece’s road to this game was the complete opposite. In the tournament-opener, they fell behind 1-0 to co-host Poland and then went down a man. Somehow, they improved after that moment, rallied for a draw and missed a penalty kick that could have given then a win. In the second match, they allowed two goals to the Czech Republic in the opening minutes. They scored one, but still lost and predictions of them finishing last in the group seemed secure. Then, in an all-time shocker, they downed Russia 1-0 in the final match to secure their spot in the quarters.
Greece came out of nowhere to win Euro 2004 in Portugal behind a solid defense that allowed just four goals in the entire tournament. While the present squad has tried to distance itself from the past, they’ll need a 2004-like performance if they want any hope of a win. Captain and all-time appearance leader Giorgos Karagounis scored the winning goal against Russia, but he will not be available due to a suspension. That experience will be missed in the locker room and on the field.
Moving from the offensively-talented teams in the Group of Death to Greece will be a welcome change in approach for Germany. Midfielders should have more freedom to move into the attack more, while Greece sits back and tries to clog things up. Look for midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger to move forward more than he did in the group stage. Greece will try to take advantage with some counterattack, but will have no problem playing for penalty kicks. Giorgos Tzavelas will be an important part of Greece’s defense. The Greeks have the fewest shots on goal in the tournament and scored just three in the weakest group.
Germany is going to control the ball for most of the game and will try to tire the Greeks out. An early German goal would open things up, as Greece would have to change its style. Per ESPN, Greece hasn’t scored a goal before the 42nd minute in a European Championship since its 2004 opener. A 0-0 draw at halftime would be a great sign for Greece.
Having not won a major tournament since 1996, Germany will come out with the skill and the confidence and cruise to an easy win.
Prediction: Germany 2-0 Greece
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