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2012 Big Ten Previews: Minnesota Over/Under Props

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(Previous entries in this series include Jamie’s take on Northwestern, Chris Mackinder’s take on Wisconsin and my takes on IowaPurdue and Ohio State)

Be careful what you wish for.

Much like Michigan fans got tired of nine-win seasons under Lloyd Carr, Minnesota fans (or at least the administration) was tired with seven-win seasons under Glen Mason. The result was some of the worst seasons in both those schools’ history. The inexperienced Tim Brewster took over at Minnesota and said all the right things, but just couldn’t put it together consistently. So, Minnesota made another change and brought in Jerry Kill, a proven winner at every stop as he has risen up the ranks.

The third year has always been the breakout year for Kill at each of his stops. 2012 will be his second with Minnesota. The signs of success were there in his first season: nearly upsetting USC in Los Angeles, beating bowl-eligible teams in Iowa and Illinois and playing Michigan State down to the wire. But there also were ugly moments: home losses to New Mexico State and North Dakota State.

Kill’s goals at Minnesota this year will be avoiding the terrible nonconference losses and compete well enough to possibly sneak into a bowl game. Will the Gophers be able to do it? Here are the props to stat and track.

MarQueis Gray total offensive yards – Over/Under 3,000

The Minnesota offense starts and stops with quarterback MarQueis Gray. After battling early academic issues off the field and Adam Weber on the field, Gray was hit-and-miss in his first full season as the starter in 2011. In the air, his 50.7 completion percentage, 1,495 yards and 8/8 TD/INT ratio shouldn’t be hard to improve upon with another year of experience. But there’s two schools of thought on how much Gray can improve.

On one hand, it’s his second year with a new coaching staff, so he should be more familiar with things, but on the other side, he’s a senior, so his ceiling isn’t far from where he’s at.

One thing we do know about Gray is he can be electric on the run. He led the Gophers with 966 yards on the ground, which was more than 300 more yards than the next guy. Athlon Sports pointed out that Gray’s 87.8 yards per game were just three yards fewer than Denard Robinson averaged. It’s too bad Gray missed the Michigan game last season. He’s got the speed, but he’s also got the size, at 6-foor-4, 240 pounds to take (and give) plenty of hits. Gray has the talent to put up better number than he has. In his senior season with a familiar offense in place, I think Gray gets the over.

Sacks allowed – Over/Under 25

One of the few stats where Minnesota was in the top half of the Big Ten was sacks against. Of course, Gray’s athletic ability had a lot to do with that. The Gophers allowed 22 sacks for the season. But how does Minnesota’s offensive line stack up this year?

It’s one of the most inexperienced lines in the Big Ten, and that’s with a lot of guys returning. Still, the line was better than expected in Kill’s first season. They lose three starters, but six returning players have starting experience and eight saw significant playing time last year. The tackles will be solid with a 6-foot-7 guys, Ed Olson and Jimmy Gjere, returning with their combined 24 career starts. But the interior will be more of a question. That means Minnesota will continue to have trouble running the ball with backs on first and second down, creating too many passing situations for Gray. That was a big problem last season.

More passing downs means more chances for sacks. Still, the line should be serviceable, and Gray’s mobility always helps, so I’m going to go with the under.

Troy Stoudermire kickoff return yards – Over/Under 500

It feels like Troy Stoudermire has been at Minnesota forever. He played four games in 2011 before breaking his arm and missing the rest of the year. He was given a medical redshirt and returns with a chance for set the NCAA career kick return yardage record. He’s currently the all-time leader for Minnesota and the Big Ten with 3,102 yards and is just 315 away from a new NCAA record.

Now, considering Stoudermire had more than 750 yards in his first three full seasons, reaching 500 would seem like a no-brainer. But the NCAA has followed the NFL’s lead and moved kickoffs to the 35-yard line with the hope of preventing injuries. The NCAA determined injuries occur on kickoffs more often than any other part of the game. Also, players on the kicking team can’t line up behind the 30-yard line, so they don’t have as much of a running start. Balls will be kicked farther, but players will get down the field slower.

In the NFL, it was rare to see a kick actually returned. But in college, the leg strength of kickers varies. There are some guys who will be able to blast it out of the end zone, but for others, this rule will help them actually get it into the end zone. Strangely enough, while Stoudermire is going to break the NCAA record (barring injury), he has never returned a kick for a touchdown. He even had a 90-yard return last season, but it wasn’t a touchdown. The new rules could change things a bit, but I still think Stoudermire gets over the 500-yard mark.

Minnesota wins – Over/Under 5.5

Minnesota might have the nicest pair of football and men’s basketball coaches in Kill and Tubby Smith. Kill’s health issues have been well documented, and there may not be a Big Ten coach that more people want to succeed. The third year has been Kill’s big leap forward, but can the Gophers get into a bowl in 2012? Let’s break down the schedule.

The nonconference schedule consists of a road game at UNLV and home games against New Hampshire, Western Michigan and Syracuse. Could the Gophers come out of that at 4-0? Sure. But I’m going to say they split the games. Big Ten play opens at Iowa, which should be a loss, although the Gophers have beaten the Hawkeyes the past two years. A home game against Northwestern, I’ll give the Gophers the win. Road game at Wisconsin for Paul Bunyan’s Axe will be another lopsided loss. Then the Boilermakers come to Minneapolis, and I’m going to make that one a toss-up game. Home game against Michigan will be a loss, but I think the Gophers will pick up a win at Illinois the final week. The final two games at Nebraska and home against Michigan State should be lopsided losses.

Based on that schedule breakdown, I see four or five wins for Minnesota. The problem is how inconsistent they can be. As I mentioned at the top of this preview, they nearly beat USC, but then lose to New Mexico State.  If the Gophers can build off the success in the second half of last season, they could go undefeated in the nonconference and find two Big Ten wins for bowl eligibility. But there are too many holes on the roster to expect consistency. I think they fall short of bowl eligibility, but Jerry Kill has turned around troubled programs before, and I think he’ll do the same at Minnesota.

The post 2012 Big Ten Previews: Minnesota Over/Under Props appeared first on Just Cover.


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